By Damian Ajayi Esq.

According to INEC, “the North-West geopolitical zone which comprises the seven states of Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto and Zamfara presently has a total of 22.27m voters. As at 2019 election, the North-West had 20.15million voters”. This is followed by the South-West with 17.93million voters; South-South with 14.4million voters; North-Central with 13.8million voters; North-East with 12.5m voters. South-East with 10.9m votes. Further clarification shows that Lagos State has the highest number of registered voters with 7.07million; Kano State has 5.9million; Kaduna state has 4.3million; Rivers state has 3.53million and Katsina State has 3.51m.

Similarly,” Jigawa recorded the highest rate of voters turnout, with 55.67 per cent, that is 1,171,801, out of its registered voters that showed up for accreditation. This was followed by Katsina State, with 48.45 per cent and Sokoto state, 46 per cent valid voters. Lagos State led the states with the lowest voters turnout with 17.25 per cent (1,089,567), followed by Abia with 18 per cent or 323,291 votes and Rivers with 19.97 per cent (642,165) in 2019”. In 2019, Kano State recorded the highest votes in the 2019 Presidential election with over 1.8m votes with APC gathering over 80percent of the votes in same.

The preliminary register voters in Nigeria is presently 93,522,272 which is a rise from 84,004,084 registered voters in 2019. In 2015, the North West accounted for about 46% of the total votes that led to the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Party(APC) as winner. The North East accounted for 18.4% while the North Central contributed about 15% to all APC total votes in 2019. The entire Northern region of Nigeria accounted for about 80% of the total votes of 15,424,921 that gave President Muhammadu Buhari of APC the victory over the incumbent former President Goodluck Jonathan of the People Democratic Party(PDP) in line with the provisions of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria(As amended) the Electoral Act 2011(As amended) and all other extant laws in Nigeria.

In 2019, the North West, which also had the highest registered voters, accounted for about 39% of the total votes of 15,191,847 for President Muhammadu Buhari under APC during his second term bid for President. President Muhammadu Buhari defeated his closest rival Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who scored 11,262,978 and President Muhammadu Buhari was declared the winner. The North- West of Nigeria is predominantly inhabited by the Hausa/Fulani tribe and both President Muhammadu Buhari and Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar are Hausa/Fulani by tribe. Interestingly, Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar with Governor of Delta, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as running mate is the Presidential candidate of the PDP in the upcoming 2023 Presidential Election and His Excellency Former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu with Former Governor of Bornu, Kashim Shettima as running mate is the Presidential candidate of the APC. These two political parties are the most dominant with the widest political structure and membership in Nigeria. Presently APC Governors are in control of about 22 states while PDP Governors have about 13 states. The New Nigeria People Party (NNPP) and The Labour Party (LP) do not have an Executive Governor in charge of any of the 36 states in Nigeria nor have up to 3(three) Senators or House of Representatives in the National Assembly.
However the statements made by prominent APC leaders in the North West and other North West caucuses of APC in respect to abandonment of the geopolitical zone and the appointment of a Vice President from the North-East call for concern.

Alarmingly, the National Vice Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) North West zone, Salihu Lukman has said that the party cannot win 2023 election without Northwest because the zone is the backbone of the party. Speaking at the end of the APC Publicity committee Zonal meeting held at the party’s Zonal secretariat in Kaduna, he said, “once the party failed to win the zone it means the party is losing the presidency”.Furthermore, Dr. Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa, the immediate past Secretary to Katsina State Government, in his interview with Vanguard, spoke on what the ruling APC may face in the 2023 general election, the crisis rocking the party in President Muhammadu Buhari’s home State and other internal wrangling in APC.. He is said to have decamped to PDP in October 2022.

The internal crisis in APC states like Kano, Kebbi, Kaduna and Katsina and Jigawa which accounts for about 90% of the APC votes in North West should be of concern. Presently the tsunami of defection in APC in Kano State if not well managed may reduce significant votes for APC in the State. According to some news outlets, “Those who decamped from the party include Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje’s Chief of Staff, Ali Makoda and the Director General, Tinubu Support Groups, Abdulmumini Jibrin (former member representing Bebeji/Kiru Federal Constituency), the Deputy Speaker, Kano State House of Assembly, Zubairu Hamza Massu (member representing Sumaila Constituency) and four other members have also dumped the party for NNPP. Others include former Speaker, Kano State House of Assembly, Kabiru Alhassan Rurum, a House of Representatives member for Tofa/Dawakin Tofa/Rimingado Constituency, Abdulkadir Jobe and a former aide to President Muhammadu Buhari on Legislative affairs, Kawu Sumaila”.

In Kebbi state the crisis in the state chapter of the APC is worrisome. According to Thisdaynews publication, titled, “PDP GAINS AS MASSIVE DEFECTION HITS APC”…”Among the defectors, is the Senate Leader, Yahaya Abdullahi, and the former Governor of the State, Senator Adamu Aliero. Others who defected with them into PDP are Hon. Bello Yakubu Relisco representing Birnin Kebbi, Kaigo and Bunza Federal Constituency, Hon. Muhammad Umar Jega representing Gwandu and Jega Federal Constituency and Hon. Abdullahi Zimbo representing Dandi and Arewa Federal Constituency. Former Governor of the State, Alhaji Sa’idu Usman Nasamu Dakingari, former Speaker of the State House of Assembly and so on”.

In Katsina where President Mohammed got about 1,624,919, 1,345,431 and 1,232,133 votes in 2011, 2015 and 2019 Presidential elections, the internal squabbling and crisis continue to tear the state chapter of the party apart. According to news report, Senator Ahmed BabbaKaita, has decamped to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Bashir Mamman (former State House of Assembly Member) also left the APC and joined PDP. Others are the former member Kurfi/Dutsin-Ma federal constituency, Danlami Muhammed Kurfi; the former zonal Special Adviser to Governor Masari on political affairs and current chairman of NNPP, SaniLiti; former SA to Governor Masari on International Relations and Investment, Ibrahim Zakari, the incumbent member representing Bindawa/Mani federal constituency at the House of Representatives, Aminu Ashiru; current member representing Kurfi/Dutsin-Ma Federal constituency, Armayau Kado and Babangida Ibrahim Talau of Malumfashi/Kafur Federal constituency”.

Historically it can be safely submitted that ethnicity and religion play a vital role in the history of Northern politics. According to Reverend M. Kukah in his book (titled “Religion, politics and power in Northern Nigeria”, published in 1993), ethnicity and religion significantly drive power relations, election and political socialization in Northern Nigeria. By extension, it is not difficult to note that APC votes in 2015 in the North West zone declined in 2019 while PDP votes in the North West zone increased from 1,338,792 in 2015 to 2,003,178 in 2019 amounting to 10.41% and 17.7% of PDP total votes in 2015 and 2019 respectively. Conversely, the total votes gathered by APC in the North-West zone was 7,105,259 in 2015 and 5,995,651 in 2019 accounting for 46% and 39% of its votes in the Presidential election respectively. With PDP candidate being a Hausa/Fulani Muslim contesting against a Yoruba Muslim from the South, it is safe to say that in 2023 Presidential election, votes in the South-West zone may decline for PDP, while votes in the North-West and North-East may reduce for APC significantly in 2023. The extent and degree to which this prediction and contraposition may go will be largely influenced by ethnicity, religion, Muslim-Muslim ticket, security challenges, economy and voters turnout or apathy in the North and South.

Interestingly, we found a consistent recurrent pattern from the Presidential elections from 2003 when President Muhammadu Buhari a Hausa/Fulani Muslim from North West contested against Former President Olusegun Obasanjo a Yoruba Christian from South-West Nigeria. Even though Former President Olusegun Obasanjo under PDP was the the incumbent and also won the Presidential election with 24,109,157 against President Buhari who had 12,495,326, President Buhari under ANPP won in all the North-west states with over 70% votes except in Kaduna where PDP won with 1,025,347 and ANPP lost with 870,454 representing 53%:45% ratio. This pattern was the same in 2011 against Former President Goodluck Jonathan in the North West and in 2015 Presidential election when President Muhammadu Buhari was eventually declared the President.

A closer look shows that most of the Governors in the North West zone in 1999, 2003, 2011 were PDP Governors yet PDP lost the North-West votes to President Muhammadu Buhari in 2003,2011,2015 and 2019. As of May 30, 2007, the PDP had 31 states under its control. The States were Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara. In 2011, PDP controlled States decline to 23, however all the States in the North West zone were PDP governors except Zamfara which had ANPP governor. Interestingly, President Muhammadu Buhari under Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) won about 70percent of the Votes cast in the North West zone during the 2011 presidential election. The argument that APC Governors and APC controlled states in the North West will automatically lead to APC victory in the Presidential elections in the North West May be false. Furthermore there are plethora of examples where the opposition won in incumbent states and vice versa.

However when Late President Yaradua a Hausa/Fulani Muslim from the North West contested against President Muhammadu Buhari in 2007, the North West votes were shared between the two candidates significantly. Hence Late President Yaradua won the Presidential Election in 2007 with 24.6million votes against President Buhari who scored about 6million votes. This figure represents the highest score and margin of defeat in the history of Nigeria’s Presidential elections. This is also the first time PDP is fielding a Northern Presidential candidate against a Southern candidate in APC. Interestingly also this is the first time APC is fielding a southern candidate. It is safe to submit that in the upcoming 2023 Presidential election, APC is not likely to have the huge number of votes in the Northwest as recorded in 2015 and 2019 Presidential elections in Nigeria especially with ATIKU ABUBAKAR as a PDP Presidential candidate.

Damian Ajayi Esq can be reached at [email protected]