Nigeria has witnessed a dramatic drop in the daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, following President Bola Tinubu’s assumption of office on May 29, 2023. According to data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the country’s daily petrol consumption plummeted by 92% in less than a year.

The NMDPRA’s Daily Truck Out Report for September 2024 shows that as of August 20, 2024, Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption had fallen to 4.5 million liters. This is a stark contrast to the figures recorded in May 2023, when daily consumption was as high as 60 million liters.

The significant drop in fuel consumption follows a series of policy reforms and economic adjustments introduced by the Tinubu administration, aimed at restructuring Nigeria’s energy sector. Chief among these reforms was the removal of the long-standing fuel subsidy, which caused an initial shock to the petroleum market but has since led to more market-driven pricing and consumption behavior.

Further analysis of the report reveals that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) distributed fuel allocations to only 16 out of Nigeria’s 36 states in the month under review. This left more than half of the country’s states facing fuel scarcity in August 2024, as they received no product allocations during that period.

A breakdown of the allocations shows that Niger State received the highest number of trucks, with 21 trucks delivering approximately 940,000 liters of petrol daily. Lagos followed closely, receiving 12 trucks, amounting to 726,001 liters per day. Kaduna also received 12 trucks, though these amounted to a slightly lower daily delivery of 454,001 liters.

Other notable allocations include:

  • Oyo State: 12 trucks (454,001 liters daily)
  • Kano State: 9 trucks
  • Ondo State: 6 trucks
  • Kwara State: 6 trucks
  • Edo State: 4 trucks
  • Federal Capital Territory (FCT): 4 trucks
    States such as Sokoto, Ogun, and Osun received smaller allocations of three to four trucks, while Gombe, Benue, Ekiti, and Kebbi each received only one truck during the period, further intensifying the fuel scarcity in these regions.

The significant reduction in petrol consumption has sparked mixed reactions from analysts and citizens alike. On one hand, the sharp drop is seen as a positive sign of reduced fuel smuggling and more efficient fuel management. For years, Nigeria struggled with fuel smuggling, where subsidized petrol was diverted to neighboring countries, leading to inflated consumption figures and substantial losses for the government.

The Tinubu administration’s removal of the fuel subsidy eliminated the price differentials that made smuggling profitable, contributing to the reduction in consumption. Additionally, the subsequent rise in petrol prices has likely discouraged overuse and encouraged a shift towards alternative energy sources such as diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and solar power.

On the other hand, the reduced petrol allocations across several states have led to growing concerns over accessibility and affordability of fuel. Many regions are grappling with supply shortages, forcing residents to endure long lines at petrol stations or pay inflated prices on the black market.