“Chaos is ladder and not just a pit”, this is the strategy being skillfully used by Putin’s Russia. Vladimir Putin is not as mad as we think for inviting a fat war in his backyard for a very petty reason, not wanting Ukraine as a member of NATO. I believe Putin has a bigger plan for the world and not just for Russia, Putin wants to resurrect a “dead USSR” but not exactly in a 20th century flesh, he has been hatching the plans tactically but largely unnoticed for over 15 years by colonizing the local politics of Russia first, pocketing the parliament and buying the eternal loyalty of Russian Oligarchs who are also “capitalist nomads” in the West. The capitalist nomadism in the West will be unravelled later and it’s advantage for Russia.

I suspect that the plan of Putin goes beyond a war with Ukraine or The West but a tactical art to fully entrench the dominion of Russia in Europe by distracting The West, sapping it’s strength and trapping Europe economically through it’s energy resources (Nord stream 1 and Nord stream 2). Trapping Europe economically through more artificial scarcity of gas in Europe which will inspire more inflation and vulcanize frustration of the people already battered by economic disasters of COVID-19. Germany smells the horror from far and has decided to sit on the fence for many reasons but chief of it which is heavy reliance on Russia for gas. Adolf Hitler deployed similar tactic in winning political victory for Nazists by taking advantage of the economic tension and successfully using the Jews as scape goat. The biggest punch Putin can offer Europe is to inspire energy/gas crisis coupled with the economic implications of COVID-19 which will heighten inflation, frustrate purchasing power and force a big show of “Big Brother Russia”.

Albeit, if Russia’s alliance with China is well cemented, the upcoming Western economic sanctions will be of less catastrophe to Russia and Europe will suffer more while USA championing the fury will be less disturbed. USA’s trade relationship with China will remain intact, the spillovers of Marshall plan/Marshall money which USA championed post second world war in Europe remain strategic to Europe’s international trade policy. Hence, Europe will be the biggest victim while Russia will be less disturbed too even without significant alliance of China because “you cannot scare a sick old man with sickness”. Germany and France smell the odour of fury and i predict the two will keep on playing silent mediating roles or satisfying two camps. UK will play a “poor daddy” role to USA being one of the parents of NATO and having a reduced interest in the stability of Europe.

Vladimir Putin will not want third world war but surely wants something hotter than “boring cold war”. He craves for a bigger war in Europe that will economically trap Europe, disunite The West, inspire more frustration of the citizens, exact bigger global influence in politics/energy economics and introduce the world to more menu unapologetically. Putin wants a USSR incarnate with a 21st century fresh flesh with a waving flag inscribed on it “Hey World! The new Russia is different from that of Gorbachev”.

Mujib Dada-Qadri is a Lawyer and Policy Analyst, he writes from Abuja.

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