By Damian Ajayi Esq

It is safe to submit that in Nigeria the office will the Executive Governor of a State is the highest political office in that State and the Executive Governor of a State, most times is the leader of his or her political party in the State, however this does not mean that the Executive Governor of a State controls all the voters or votes in the State or has absolute control over all the members of a political party in the State.

In PDP for instance there are various organs in the party which are duly constituted and enshrined in their constitution. Such organs include: The Ward Executive Committee; The Ward Congress; The Local Government Area Executive Committee; The Local Government Area Caucus; The Local Government Area Congress; The Senatorial District Executive Committee; The Senatorial District Caucus; The State Working Committee, The State Caucus; The State Elders Committee; The State Executive Committee; The State Congress; The Zonal Working Committee; The Zonal Executuve Committee; The Zonal Congress; The National Working Committee, The National Caucus; The Board of Trustees; The National Executive Committee and the National Convention. For example the State Caucus is made up of the State Governor and Deputy Governor, members of the National Assembly, the State House of Assembly members, Federal Ministers, Special advisers who are members of the party in that State. They also include party Chairmen, three(3) commissioners, etc.

The State Elders Committee includes all members of the party in the State who are serving and past Presidents, Vice Presidents, Governors, Deputy Governors, Federal Ministers, National Assembly, Chairmen of Federal Boards, Former Speakers of the State House of Assembly, State Chairmen, members of the National Working Committee etc. There is also the State Executive Committee comprising of all.serving and past Presidents, Vice President; all serving and past State Governors and Deputy Governors, Speaker, Deputy Speaker, Party leader, all National and Zonal Executive Committee, State Deputy Chairma, State Secretary, all elected Local Government Area Party Chairmen in the State etc.

The functions and powers of the State Executive Committee include: to undertake the general administration of the Party in the State and implement the decisions of the State Congress and the directives of the National Working Committee and National Executive Committee amongst others. Hence party structure is robust and wide for effective political representation and administration and though a Governor of a State may exert influence, he or she is not the alpha and omega in decision making or voting of party members or the General public in the State. Politicking, diplomacy, persuasion, ethnicity,religion, achievements, opposition, consensus etc take centre stage in managing varying interests in party politics and directives.

There are plethora of instances where the Executive Governor of a State lost re-election or where an Executive Governor won reelection or election and yet lost the state to another poltical party in the Presidential election. Examples abound in PDP in 2003,2007,2011 and 2015 where the North-West states were lost to opposition even when PDP Governors were in charge. In 2019, APC Governor won in Plateau State and PDP Presidential candidate won in the Presidential election in Plateau State. States like Bauchi and Sokoto with PDP Governors lost to APC presidential candidate in their States and same scenario played in Imo state and Edo state in 2015 and 2019 and in Ondo State where PDP candidates won the Presidential election in those states even though they had APC Governors. Most recently, we saw how PDP won in the 2019 presidential election in Anambra State but APGA won the Gubernatorial election held in 2022.

A closer interrogation of historical data and election results shows that in 2019 Presidential election, the Presidential candidate of PDP(Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar) had 11,262,978 while the APC under the incumbent President of Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari had 15,695,385 votes to be declare the winner. It is interesting to note that in 2019, 50.5% of PDP total votes came from the three(3) geopolitical zones in the South of Nigeria while about 49% came from the three(3) geopolitical zones in the North of Nigeria. Conversely in 2019, about 77% of APC votes came from the entire Northern Nigeria while only 22% of APC Votes came from the southern region of Nigeria. In addition, the South South with 2,225,240 accounted for about 19% and the North Central accounted for about 17.9% with 2,023,042 and the South East accounted for 15.03% with 1,693,485 votes. Interestingly, in the 2019 Presidential election, PDP in the North-West had 2,003,189 votes which accounted for about 17.7% of its total votes while in the South-West, PDP had 1,776,660.

The 2019 Presidential election figures show that PDP votes in North- West and South-West were higher than PDP votes in the South-East even though the running mate of Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in 2019 Presidential election was Former Governor Peter obi who is from Anambra State which is part of the South-East geopolitical zone of Nigeria. Compared to 2015, under Former President Goodluck Jonathan, the votes in South-South was 4,714,725 accounting for 36% of PDP total votes and 2,464,906 in South East. From this analysis there was a drop in PDP votes in South South from 2015 to 2019. A Closer look at the 2019 Presidential election figures shows that PDP in Rivers State had 1,487,075 votes in 2015 and 473,971 in 2019 respectively. In States like Abia, Enugu, Oyo and Benue, PDP votes in the 2019 Presidential election were 219,698 and 355,553 and 336,000 and 356,8175 respectively. Even though PDP Governors were incumbent in Rivers State and Benue State, APC had 150,710 and 347,817 respectively.

Culminatively in 2019 the G5 PDP Governors (comprising of Rivers, Benue, Abia, Oyo, and Enugu States) had less than 1.8m votes for PDP in 2019. Interestingly in 2023 General elections, all the G5 PDP Governors are not contesting for re-election except for Governor of Oyo, Governor Seyi Makinde is running for reelection for second term as Governor of Oyo State. In Rivers State PDP, has all the Senators and House of Representatives from Rivers State. In Benue State, Governor Ortom, Former Governor Suswam and Senator Abba Moro are the PDP Senatorial candidates in Benue State and both Former Governor Gabriel Suswam and Senator Abba Moro have resolved to work for Atiku/Okowa 2023 Presidency. It is safe to say that the South South and South East have always been won by the PDP in all the Presidential elections since 1999 till 2019. Ironically even in 2003 Presidential election, when it was Former President Olusegun Obasanjo/Atiku Abubakar Presidential ticket, PDP had about 7,056,384 votes in the South-South geopolitical zone and 5,042,678 in the South west geopolitical zone accounting for 29% and 20% respectively.

In 2007 Presidential election, where Former President Jonathan from Bayelsa State in the South-South was the running mate to Late Former President Yaradua, PDP won with over 24million total votes with landslide victory in all the states in the South-South and South East geopolitical zone in Nigeria. It is therefore promising to see how PDP will perform in the South-South geopolitical zone with Governor of Delta State, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa as running mate to Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. South West remains a strong hold for the APC Presidential Candidate and it is expected that APC will win comfortably in the South West all things being equal. In Benue State, PDP has always won the Presidential election in the state from 1999-2015 except for 2015 and 2019 Presidential election. Benue state has always had a PDP Governor since1999 when Former Governor Akume(1999-2007) and Former Governor Suswam(2007-2015) until the present Governor, Governor Ortom defeated the PDP candidate to win the Governorship election in 2015 General elections but decamped back to PDP in 2019 where he recontested and won the Governorship election against APC. With the Governor of Delta State, Sen. Ifeanyi Okowa as the running mate of Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar,(the Presidential candidate of PDP), the South-South votes which is the third largest in the six geopolitical zones is expected to be in favour of the PDP as ethnicity and ethno-religious narratives may predict outputs. Without prejudice and with deepest respect to the ongoing reconciliation and negotiation to resolve the PDP crisis, the G5 PDP Governors do not seem to have the numbers to sink the PDP ship even if they want to.

The recent outburst by Governor of Benue State, Governor Ortom does not seem to support strong and threatening numbers against the PDP particularly because Benue North East is the most populated Senatorial DISTRICT in Benue State and Former Governor Suswam is the present Senator representing the Senatorial DISTRICT and has pitched tent with Atiku/Okowa ticket. Furthermore will or can Governor Ortom wield and exert more political influence above Senator David Mark, Senator ABBA Moro, and other prominent PDP members in Benue State who have pitched tent with the Atiku/Okowa ticket?

In Enugu State, on the 8th of November 2022, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in Enugu State constituted its State Campaign Council. The Director-General of the State PDP Campaign Organization for the 2023 general elections, Ikeje Asogwa, is also the Director General of the Campaign Organization of the PDP guber candidate, Dr Peter Mbah in Enugu State. According to news reports,… “the Campaign DG also announced the appointment of a Campaign Advisory Committee composing eminent elder statesmen and political leaders in the state. They include former governors, Jim Nwobodo, Okwesilieze Nwodo and Group Captain Joe Orji (rtd), former Deputy Governors, Okechukwu Itanyi, Dr Sunday Onyebuchi and Rev Dr Ralph Nwonye. Others are Senator Ike Ekweremadu, Rev. Hyde Onuaguluchi, Senator Ben Collins Ndu, Senator Chukwuka Utazi, Dr Pat Asadu, Toby Okechukwu, Senator Gil Nnaji, Ambassador Justina Eze, Goddy Agbo and Dubem Onyia”.

Interestingly except for the Governor of Enugu State, all members of Enugu State Government and legislature and all prominent members of the PDP in the State were present at the Atiku/Okowa rally in Enugu State. With discordant tunes among the G5 Governors in supporting a particular Presidential candidate, it can be safe to say that the numbers and strength have been weakened and the group may have lost its steam.

Damian Ajayi Esq is a Legal Practitioner and can be reached at [email protected]